After almost 20 years and tens of $billions in subsidies, wind and solar’s combined contribution to Australian energy demand is risible. And that’s on average. Those pesky facts (sunset and calm weather) mean that there are hundreds of occasions each year when their combined contribution is a big fat zero.
Meanwhile, back on Earth, it’s Australian coal that keeps on delivering the goods, 24/7, whatever the weather.
Renewables rise but fossil fuels still power nation
Coal, oil and natural gas provided 94 per cent of Australia’s “primary energy” needs and 81 per cent of electricity generation last year, as the nation continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels despite a surge in renewable energy.
The annual Australian Energy Update reveals electricity generation from renewables increased 10 per cent in 2017-18, and grew to 19 per cent of total generation last year. Energy Minister Angus Taylor said while the energy update, released on Friday, showed a lower reliance on coal compared with previous years, coal-fired electricity generation “still accounted for 60 per cent of total generation” in 2018.
“The challenge in the energy sector is integrating the renewables boom to deliver affordable and reliable power. That means keeping our existing generation in, and running at full tilt, and supporting complementary investment in dispatchable generation and storage,” Mr Taylor said.
“Key findings from the Australian Energy Update 2019, covering all types of energy used across the Australian economy, show that energy productivity has improved by 20 per cent over the past decade as the emissions intensity of the economy continues to fall.”
In 2017-18, Australia’s energy consumption rose by 0.9 per cent to reach 6172 petajoules, with transport remaining the largest user of energy, growing by 2 per cent. Total energy production by fuel type was led by black coal, natural gas and oil, followed by brown coal and renewables.
Coal consumption in NSW hit 25 per cent, while Victoria registered a 19 per cent fall in 2017-18.
Mr Taylor said coal remained vital to the NSW economy, providing almost 80 per cent of electricity generation across the state last year.
The Morrison government is considering underwriting new gas, hydro and coal projects across the nation to modernise the energy grid in an effort to drive down electricity prices, which fell in the June quarter to their lowest level since September, 2017.
The government last month launched a Liddell taskforce with the Berejiklian government to consider options in response to AGL’s planned closure of the Liddell coal-fired power station, located in the NSW Hunter region, in 2023. AGL earlier this year deferred the closure of the 50-year-old plant, which was originally planned to cease operating at the end of 2022.
Mr Taylor warned that Victoria’s energy grid, which continues to rely on coal and gas, would come under extreme pressure over summer.
“While the Victorian Labor government has adopted an irresponsible renewable energy target there are very real concerns for the reliability and stability of the Victorian energy grid this summer,” he said.
He also urged the Andrews government to remove its ban on gas exploration to help support heavy industries and jobs through the “delivery of reliable and affordable power to households and businesses”.
South Australia’s move to renewables has seen its reliance on them increase to 51 per cent of total electricity generation across 2018.
Mr Taylor said the state, gripped by mass blackouts in recent years, needed to “integrate the surge in renewables” through the retention of “thermal generation” and supporting “complimentary investment in dispatchable generation and storage”.
The minister said gas remained an important part of South Australia’s energy mix, representing 52 per cent of the state’s electricity generation.
Gas consumption increased in Queensland and Western Australia, with the mining and LNG sector in the west representing nearly one-third of total WA energy consumption.
The data above comes from Aneroid Energy and shows the output of every wind turbine connected to Australia’s Eastern Grid, situated from Far North Queensland, down through New South Wales, all over Victoria, Northern Tasmania and South Australia, with a combined notional capacity of 6,702 MW.
Notwithstanding its enormous geographical spread, Australia’s wind power fleet delivers an unreliable, chaotic and occasional source of electricity, often when and where it’s needed least; often collapsing without warning, when it’s needed most.
On numerous occasions, wind power output collapses in magnitudes of thousands of MWs, with the entire fleet often struggling to produce more than 400 MW or 6% of notional capacity.
If the same were true of Australia’s coal-fired power plants, Australians would spend more than half their time freezing or boiling in the dark. And yet, we’re repeatedly told that we’re well on our way to an all wind and sun powered future. It’s as if the collective has filed for divorce against reality.
David Bidstrup runs the wind and solar numbers and reaches the answer to Australia’s renewable energy debacle: a diesel generator for every household.
Where were the renewables when we needed them?
Yesterday’s Australian had an article by Nick Cater [available here] where he reported an interview on 3AW with the Victorian Energy Minister. With the looming energy crisis this coming summer she was asked “can you guarantee supply?” The following charts show the percentage of demand met by the different generators on January 18 2018, a day when temperatures “soared” into the 40’s and electricity prices “soared” to $14,500 per MWh.
The numbers come from the AEMO reports that list each generators output every five minutes. With a bit of fiddling around it is possible to split the production into component parts and then analyse the percentage of demand met by the different generators in 5 minute increments during the day. My source is Aneroid Energy.
The first chart shows the daily demand curve. There are 288 5 minute increments on the X axis.
The next shows the percentage of demand met by coal, gas and hydroelectricity.
Next is the contribution from wind and solar. Note that I did not plot them against coal, gas and hydro because they would not show up on the chart.
The table below summarises the total production for the day and the % supplied by each type. Note that coal, gas and hydro provided 97.7% of the required energy and renewables just 2.3%.
The peak wind was 3% at around 4.30 a.m. and peak solar was 1.3% at 10.35 a.m. so their peaks were about 6 hours apart.
The following day was also one of high demand, high prices and poor renewable performance. Looking at the numbers I think it is time to get a generator before next summer hits.
Source: Stop These Things
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